Rot Gut

Over ten days in January of 1943, US President Franklin Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill met off the coast of Morocco in what would be known as the Casablanca Conference. Despite the absence of Russia’s Josef Stalin—now an ally after Adolf Hitler shattered the 1939 Non-Aggression Pact by launching Operation Barbarossa eastward on June 22, 1941—Roosevelt and Churchill were determined to establish the broad strokes of modern history’s most significant military collaboration. 

At the top of the decision list was whether to pursue unconditional surrender. In retrospect, the decision to insist on it appears to be a no-brainer. After all, who would trust any truce deal Hitler would sign on to? And expecting the zealots of Japan’s military to accede to half-measures now seems ludicrous.  But it was less straightforward in real time, particularly to the British who, unlike the Americans, would have to occupy the same continent as Stalinist Russia after the war ended. 

Churchill considered Roosevelt’s view of Stalin naive and shortsighted. Several Eastern European governments-in-exile—especially Poland—expected Britain to atone for Neville Chamberlain’s Munich appeasement and for Stalin’s atrocities in territories ceded to him under the Non-Aggression Pact, by championing their cause in any post-war settlement. That would become far more difficult once the Red Army was occupying vast stretches of territory.

For his part, FDR had little sympathy for Churchill’s concerns about Russia. He was far more worried about the Red Army being defeated and the Reich redirecting its full might westward once again than about post-war power struggles. When they had talked at other times, Stalin had relentlessly pressed this point, repeatedly emphasizing the disproportionate sacrifices the USSR was making. Win the war first, FDR reasoned—Churchill’s post-war concerns would be problems worth having.

Deciding on a strategy of unconditional surrender carried immense repercussions and responsibilities. Once announced, the stakes would rise dramatically—Axis leaders, now understanding that they personally faced the hangman’s noose, had nothing left to lose. It was like a prosecutor in a criminal trial seeking the death penalty: the jury, fully aware of the gravity of a guilty verdict, knew it would carry the most severe consequences imaginable.

Responding to Donald Trump’s post last week on Truth Social calling for Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, posed a reasonable question: “Who would we surrender to?” Indeed, there are no boots on the ground anywhere near Tehran, and neither Israel nor the U.S. had suggested anything about actually invading the country. The demand—like most of Trump’s posts on Truth Social—appeared out of nowhere, offering yet more evidence of how unserious yet dangerously volatile the U.S. has become since January.

It has long been clear that Trump reads little, if anything. He apparently disdains the practice so much that he refuses to engage in one of the presidency’s most crucial rituals: reviewing the daily intelligence briefing. His aversion is so pronounced that even his normally unquestioning inner circle is scrambling to repackage the information in a form he might actually consume.

For example, Deputy Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard has been floating the idea of creating daily video briefings—“like Fox News”—to put Trump at ease and make him more receptive to real-world developments. Even so, teaching an old dog and all that. Even if news of Iran achieving nuclear weapons status were delivered with a servile grin by Jesse Watters or Sean Hannity, there’s been no reported progress on getting Trump to pay attention to things that need to be read. After all, Trump has always insisted that flying blind is fine—because he prefers to “rely on my gut instincts.”

On Saturday, Trump reached deep into his intestinal tract and ordered a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities—something previous administrations, both Republican and Democrat (including his own first term, when adults still occupied the West Wing and led the Pentagon), had recognized as a perilous last resort. They understood such an action risked triggering a chain of events no one could control. Just how close Iran truly is to possessing a nuclear weapon remains a matter ongoing debate.

Israel justified its recent bombing campaign with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu declaring, “Iran has taken steps that it has never taken before: steps to weaponize enriched uranium.” However, as recently as March, Gabbard testified that Tehran’s weapons program remained dormant, stating, “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”

Regardless, once Trump began posting about “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” the point became moot. As soon as the manic social media posts began, it was clear—as always with Trump—that the rational actor model no longer applied. Facts would take a backseat to whim; we were now on Mar-a-Lago time. On Saturday, that clock struck high noon, and without notifying NATO or informing Congressional Democrats, Trump plunged America into yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. Though avoiding foreign wars was one of the few consistent messages he conveyed during the 2024 campaign, when push came to shove, his inner autocrat seemed to understand instinctively that nothing distracts and legitimizes like a well-timed bombing campaign.

Of course, Trump declared the strikes a “spectacular success”—but that’s highly doubtful. First, because nearly everything he says is a lie inversely proportional to the superlatives he uses. And second, because common sense collides with any overly optimistic scenario. It’s hard to believe that, upon learning its sovereignty was being challenged, Iran didn’t activate long-standing contingency plans to relocate and safeguard uranium and centrifuges. Moreover, even the most optimistic weapons analysts have long acknowledged that the odds are long that even “bunker buster” munitions can penetrate deeply enough to decisively cripple enrichment operations.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—whose credibility far exceeds that of Orange Pinocchio—issued blistering rebukes last week following Israel’s bombing sorties against Iran. The agency reiterated its warning that “armed attacks on nuclear facilities could result in radioactive releases with grave consequences within and beyond the boundaries of the State which has been attacked.” Unsurprisingly, Trump has shown no concern for those ramifications and has given no indication of even briefly considering them.

Totalitarianism and outward aggression go hand in hand; one cannot exist without the other. New fears must always be stoked, new enemies always kept at the ready. Since January, Trump and the criminal MAGA Party—formerly known as the Republican Party, now dedicated to polishing his wing tips—have unleashed a torrent of fascist assaults aimed at sowing chaos, paralyzing American governance, and dismantling the rule of law. Yet all that destruction is now treated as yesterday’s news, as the normalization machine elevates a demented scoundrel to the status of statesman.

Sunday morning, The Washington Post blared the headline: “Trump promises tragedy for Tehran if it retaliates.” Dan Balz, the doddering dean of inside-the-Beltway punditry, gushed that the bombing was “both extraordinary and unprecedented… President Donald Trump has taken the United States to a place no previous president was prepared to go.” Talk about turning frozen burger patties into filet mignon.

Meanwhile, buried on page A3 was reporting on the chaotic collapse of Social Security customer service, with one employee noting that call times are “exploding.” Callers are no longer given wait time estimates, and field office operations have been severely crippled. One anonymous staffer blamed the crisis on “mismanagement driven in part by DOGE.” Just one of countless disasters deliberately set in motion by Trump—now overshadowed by a war he intentionally launched. Distract, scapegoat, and terrify: the ruinous triad of nihilist tyranny we must never surrender to. —BC